Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 11.440775 13.418237 15.586931 18.135343 21.041084 24.243975 28.034367
2025-01-05 8.305439 10.836906 13.870990 17.748785 22.543763 28.246991 35.509219
2025-01-12 6.535453 9.320513 12.911630 17.822693 24.296188 32.462118 43.454356
2025-01-19 5.295186 8.163427 12.103351 17.810563 25.746229 36.252320 51.046120
2025-01-26 4.682530 7.714852 12.108718 18.785464 28.484618 41.837262 61.328571
2025-02-02 4.148736 7.266856 12.010812 19.537097 30.904515 47.101324 71.497738
2025-02-09 3.743081 6.935891 12.014266 20.390123 33.487224 52.723202 82.503202
2025-02-16 3.230444 6.337374 11.504940 20.363251 34.695433 56.376776 90.844770
2025-02-23 2.702944 5.620108 10.696195 19.739907 34.874244 58.442058 96.888545
2025-03-02 2.244556 4.946363 9.862850 18.959585 34.689064 59.875397 101.986576
2025-03-09 1.974122 4.582656 9.521624 18.968241 35.774275 63.338780 110.409239
2025-03-16 1.751834 4.276435 9.242068 19.043966 36.956071 67.002553 119.328424
2025-03-23 1.546161 3.976691 8.948552 19.083627 38.114008 70.765411 128.753670
2025-03-30 1.297513 3.536845 8.320199 18.419771 37.948906 72.279335 134.540398
2025-04-06 1.145848 3.290529 8.051411 18.419418 38.988410 75.915594 144.106287
2025-04-13 1.011704 3.059987 7.782897 18.384247 39.946163 79.449179 153.670877
2025-04-20 0.969412 3.053837 8.004348 19.379427 42.960989 86.837916 170.369250
2025-04-27 0.914001 3.002812 8.116497 20.149597 45.582085 93.646333 186.365033
2025-05-04 0.869254 2.972620 8.272148 21.025245 48.471515 101.100310 203.875599
2025-05-11 0.776282 2.787115 8.032201 20.997445 49.507086 105.122478 215.309692
2025-05-18 0.663389 2.517488 7.546679 20.357058 49.207566 106.566500 222.027087
2025-05-25 0.558816 2.247743 7.019254 19.555363 48.487304 107.129695 227.087014
2025-06-01 0.501820 2.118306 6.840557 19.564252 49.516313 111.177464 238.945832